Recently, I posted on LinkedIn about this silly little caffeinated newsletter… there were just over 50 of you when that post was made (the real pioneers!).

Either y’all must like me, or this send’s topic was pure clickbait… as over 100 of you are now subscribed.

Y’all are crazy. Thanks for keeping my dopamine levels high and my caffeine intake regular (I never write without caffeine).

Let me set the stage briefly and give 'y’all a sneak peek at today’s email:

The Espresso Shot (TL;DR)

• In February, Spotify renewed its deal with Joe Rogan for an estimated $250 million. However, Joe is no longer exclusive to Spotify—why the change of heart? Spotify got what it needed and can now soak in profit. Good deal.

• In January, SiriusXM made a $100 million deal with Smartless. Is this a hedge against a potentially retiring Howard Stern, or is there a real strategy to monetize? What can they do that Amazon (Wondery) couldn’t? Meh deal.

• In August, SiriusXM committed another $125 million to Call Her Daddy. But is Alex Cooper still worth it? Maybe. Spotify doesn’t seem to need her anymore—why? High risk, medium reward. Speculative at best.

• Wondery acquired the Kelce brothers' New Heights podcast for around $100 million. This only makes sense as part of Amazon's Prime/NFL package. Potentially good in the broader strategy. Bad if just for the podcast.

Each of these deals is huge, the risks are heavy, and some are more questionable than others.

I hope your coffee is as hot as these takes. Saddle up, and let’s get to work:

Joe Rogan Stays with Spotify

Love him or hate him, Joe Rogan is still the biggest name in podcasting. His original $200 million deal in 2020 was Spotify’s stake in the ground, showing they were serious about becoming a major player. Stripping JRE off YouTube and Apple was a purposeful grab for platform listenership through the world’s #1 show.

They did the same with the Ringer, Call Her Daddy, and many others.

The goal? Impressions. Not early profits.

Spotify acquired Podsights, Chartable, Megaphone, Anchor, and others, effectively creating an ecosystem. Now, they’re rolling out a bid-based platform that sells listens of ads, not downloads. The programmatic podcasting industry should be feeling tremors.

Surely if we put on our thinking caps we could have seen the writing on the wall.

In early 2024, JRE reappeared on YouTube and Apple Podcasts. Why? Because Spotify hit its tipping point. After four years, they had saturated their audience, and the incremental gain wasn’t worth locking down the content anymore. They can now capitalize on wider distribution while selling even more ad inventory across other platforms.

This is mildly telling about the performance of Joe over Call Her Daddy (CHD) I might say that if CHD had as much horsepower for brands I’d wager they would have fought to keep it—but really, Spotify does not, or need to care about the podcasters anymore. They have market saturation.

Renewing Rogan was a good deal for Spotify for two reasons:

• Strength: They can’t afford to look weak in this market. Keeping Rogan signals they’re still in the game. You could speculate this is the sole reason for keeping him, but I think he drives enough.

• Profit: Rogan is probably their most profitable acquisition. Selling ad space across even more platforms? They'll recoup the $250 million.

P.S. If you doubt Spotify's commitment to podcasts, just look at their army of SaaS salespeople—former IBM, Microsoft, and Intel salespeople with no podcasting experience. They’re not selling podcasts; they’re selling an audio marketplace.

P.S x2: Why are Audiobooks free via Spotify now? Because they want to steal people from Audible at a loss now to sell ad placements later.

C’mon sheeple, let’s see it for what it is.

Call Her Daddy moves to SiriusXM

Okay, let’s talk first about why Call Her Daddy isn’t getting renewed by Spotify.

steps on to soapbox

Alex Cooper is iconic, but she’s becoming more detached from her community. Her guest profiles keep rising, but engagement doesn’t match. Here’s a quick formula to measure YouTube engagement:

Writes in whispers so the artificially inflated youtube channels don’t hear

Divide the video views by the comments. If the number is less than 300, that’s an engaged community.

Take a look at Call Her Daddy's last four videos (these are clips/previews):

Her average score? 561.51. Too high.

Now look at Rogan:

P.S. Data pulled 9:16 am MST on 8/30/2024.

Note, that there are similar ways to do this on Audio as well, but I’m holding that one close to my chest.

Spotify milked Call Her Daddy to bring listeners onto their platform. Now, they’re letting Alex go because the show isn’t pulling in the revenue they need.

SiriusXM’s $125 million deal? Good for Alex. But for Sirius, this is a high-risk, moderate-reward play.

Three possible upsides for Sirius:

1. Events: Alex thrives on events—SiriusXM loves to host them.

2. Unwell: If Sirius monetizes the Unwell network and capitalizes on rising stars like Alix Earle, this could be their big win. It is the Pandora’s box of this deal (get it? Because Sirius owns Pandora…)

3. Howard Stern: This might be a hedge against Stern’s potential retirement. Sirius needs a backup.

Overall, this deal hinges on those factors. High risk, moderate reward.

Again, throw shade at me all you want for comparing clips to full episodes—but I have a hunch I’m right.

Sorry, Alex, I’m not sure Daddy Gang is worth your price tag.

Smartless Goes to SiriusXM from Wondery

I’ll keep this one brief: Wondery lost its titan, Smartless, to SiriusXM. This feels like a battle of sales teams more than anything.

I don’t see Smartless having as much outside event or value-add potential compared to Call Her Daddy. SiriusXM’s streaming arm via Pandora and its satellite radio presence might help bolster Smartless, but at its core, this deal seems more about who can sell ad inventory better.

Looking at the ad history, it’s clear that SiriusXM transitioned the show from Wondery’s control around September 2023. The brand suite changed, ad frequency increased, and eventually, they managed to bring back some original advertisers.

Has Sirius monetized Smartless better? Maybe. It’s hard to tell from the outside, but the increase in ad load suggests they're giving it a solid go. However, this deal doesn't have the same shine as Call Her Daddy or even Rogan’s renewal.

It reminds me of the ~$150 million Crooked Media deal in 2022—take a high-performing show, flood it with brand awareness campaigns for top dollars, kill engagement, and then beg the direct response brands to return after the dust settles. We saw Crooked’s big drop-off in 2023.

For me, this deal is a 5/10. Possibly profitable for SiriusXM but far from exciting. It feels like a safety net, maybe another contingency plan for Howard Stern’s eventual exit.

New Heights to Wondery/Amazon Prime?

We barely had time to digest the Call Her Daddy deal before Wondery announced its acquisition of New Heights for a reported $100 million.

Now, if this were purely a podcast sales rights deal, I’d say it’s a bad move. The New Heights podcast owes much of its success to the Taylor Swift effect—Swifties tuning in for a behind-the-scenes look at the Kelce brothers' lives. And you can’t convince me otherwise.

Side note: I went on a date with a girl who went to four stops on the Eras tour… four. The culty-ness of her fan base is ridiculous.

But there’s a bigger play here.

Daddy Bezos didn’t just buy a podcast—he bought a key piece in Amazon’s Thursday Night Football (TNF) strategy. With an 11-year media rights deal for TNF on Prime, Amazon is trying to build a comprehensive ecosystem that captures NFL fans’ attention, and the Kelce brothers are a perfect fit for that audience.

This deal is about impressions, not podcasting profits. Amazon likely sees New Heights as a tool to drive engagement with Prime and eventually fuel its ad machine (like Spotify did with Rogan). I’m not convinced Amazon cares about podcasts beyond their role in selling everything from A to Z on Amazon.com.

Podcasting, in this case, is just another channel for ads—not the mission. And honestly, that’s good business.

That said, I think New Heights is overhyped. Its YouTube engagement sits somewhere between Call Her Daddy and Rogan—it doesn’t meet my “300” benchmark. To me, it feels like a lot of Swifties waiting for Taylor content, NFL fans hoping for post-game commentary, and a legion of hopefuls waiting for Travis to pop the question to Taylor.

I don’t see the $100 million price tag holding up without Taylor Swift's looming presence. This deal is okay, but I’d say it’s more about Amazon’s larger media strategy than the podcast itself.

• Strength: A Joe Rogan-like play for impressions to funnel into a broader Amazon strategy.

• Weakness: Contingent long-term success dependant on Taylor Swift—outside factor. Engagement or fallout, I know we’re getting an album.

But seriously, four Eras tour stops?

Wrap Up

The deals that have gone down so far this year are each quite interesting. None of which I think are as exciting as the industry wants us to think they are. They feel retroactive to things that already happened and less telling about what’s to come.

As I put my coffee down and hear the shallow thunk marking the end of my caffeinated sips I think I should end this rant.

Let me leave you with a few thoughts:

There’s not too many more big deals on the horizon I can imagine, but let me hypothesize a few:

1. Kill Tony will go to a streaming platform. It’s such a good show for group watching and is more of a TV special than a podcast—better suited for streaming revenue.

2. Huberman Lab may start to scale a network as he recently brought one other creator, Andy Galpin, this year to Scicomm Media.

3. Anything Goes with Emma Chamberlain will be on Spotify’s chopping block soon when that deal expires (for the same reasons as Call Her Daddy)—who wants it?

4. Malcolm Gladwell and Pushkin may look for a new home with a decline in ad renewal rates—the ad load is crazy.

5. Prof. G (Scott Galloway) will acquire more shows under the Prof G. Media banner. He’s been on a crazy press tour on podcasts this year and has been talking about the business of podcasting (quoted they do $20M+ per year with a cost of $3-$4M in an interview with Colin and Samir)

Just a few thoughts. I’m probably wrong on many.

Might do an email later on the tech acquisitions of the past few years—who doesn’t love more speculation?

Anyway, my coffee is dry and my humour drier. Good day, friends!